Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:09:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x571c…6a4a sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$23 (-9%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate33%5W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% $0
crypto 36% −$62
sports 15% +$35
other 10% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +7.7% -2.6% 50% 50% -5.0%
≤30d 3 -28.2% -35.0% 33% 33% -28.7%
≤90d 15 +1.1% -8.5% 33% 27% -28.9%
all 15 +1.1% -8.5% 33% 27% -28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 27% -28.9%
10% -17.3% 20% -35.7%
15% -25.3% 20% -41.9%
20% -32.6% 20% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$8 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)15 / 19
History coverage51d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) Nikita Krylov 35¢ 34¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 29 $2 $0 -0%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 $0 +16%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $1 +$1 +140%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 16 $16 −$6 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 16 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 16 $42 −$30 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 16 $27 −$25 -94%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 16 $5 +$9 +172%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 16 $10 +$42 +414%
UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) May 10 $3 −$3 -97%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 09 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelim BUY Nikita Krylov 35¢ $5 1h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $2 30h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 42h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 8d
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Dooho Choi 41¢ $1 44d
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai BUY Melquizael Costa 47¢ $5 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $4 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down $5 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $5 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $5 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up $5 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up $5 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $7 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $5 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $5 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down $27 44d
UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) BUY Ozzy Diaz 10¢ $3 50d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Waldo Cortes-Acosta 44¢ $5 50d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 19¢ $10 50d
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Brady 36¢ $5 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.30 · official $130.25 (match) · 37 history records