Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:10:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x571c…62b3 other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 298d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%13W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$9
other 28% −$1
politics 18% $0
sports 7% $0
tech 4% $0
weather 4% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.5% -11.8% 50% 0% -12.3%
≤30d 9 -2.2% -11.6% 44% 0% -12.1%
≤90d 9 -2.2% -11.6% 44% 0% -12.1%
all 38 -3.2% -12.4% 34% 3% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 3% -10.4%
10% -20.8% 0% -19.0%
15% -28.4% 0% -26.8%
20% -35.4% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

298d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses13 / 25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage298d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 40¢ 44¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $58 −$6 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $30 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $34 −$2 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 14 $2 $0 -10%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 08 $78 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 08 $4 $0 +12%
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the 2025 US Open? Sep 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 02 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $28 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 02 $12 −$1 -5%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 28 $39 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 28 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 75°F or higher on August 28? Aug 28 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Aug 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 27 $32 $0 +0%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 27 $8 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 27 $35 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 26 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 26 $30 $0 +1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 25 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $27 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 20¢ $9 8h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $8 9h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 18h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $24 20h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $29 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $14 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $13 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $3 29h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $24 29h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $22 33h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $7 33h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 70¢ $29 34h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $4 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $21 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $3 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $24 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $22 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $22 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 74¢ $23 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $29 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $29 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $24 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $23 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $6 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $30 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $28 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $30 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.09 · official $26.66 (match) · 145 history records