trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? | Yes | 54¢ | 61¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+13%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 30? | Yes | 44¢ | 0¢ | $21 | $0 | −$21 (-100%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or higher on March 21? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 23? | Yes | 38¢ | 0¢ | $41 | $0 | −$41 (-100%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 24? | Yes | 88¢ | 0¢ | $116 | $0 | −$116 (-100%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 29? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | $15 | $0 | −$15 (-100%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 30? | Yes | 43¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $0 | −$20 (-100%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 21? | Yes | 31¢ | 0¢ | $17 | $0 | −$17 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? | Jun 12 | $2 | −$1 | -30% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? | Jun 11 | $1 | +$2 | +155% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | -8% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? | Jun 11 | $1 | +$2 | +185% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 1? | Apr 01 | $8 | −$8 | -98% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 1? | Apr 01 | $25 | −$24 | -98% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on April 1? | Apr 01 | $17 | −$13 | -77% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 30? | Mar 31 | $5 | +$44 | +910% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 30? | Mar 29 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 30? | Mar 29 | $21 | −$21 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 29? | Mar 29 | $29 | +$19 | +63% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 29? | Mar 29 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 25? | Mar 25 | $10 | −$9 | -88% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 24? | Mar 24 | $116 | −$116 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 23? | Mar 24 | $64 | +$45 | +70% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 23? | Mar 22 | $41 | −$41 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 21? | Mar 22 | $26 | +$34 | +133% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or higher on March 21? | Mar 20 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 21? | Mar 20 | $17 | −$17 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +75.5% | +58.8% | 50% | 50% | +39.9% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +75.5% | +58.8% | 50% | 50% | +39.9% |
| ≤90d | 19 | +22.0% | +10.4% | 32% | 32% | -41.2% |
| all | 19 | +22.0% | +10.4% | 32% | 32% | -41.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +10.4% | 32% | -41.2% |
| 10% | -0.2% | 32% | -46.9% |
| 15% | -9.8% | 32% | -52.0% |
| 20% | -18.7% | 32% | -56.7% |