Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:29:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
57 0x5717…3167 sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$189 (+76%) realized +$204 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip
Net edge+35%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$164
14 days+$164
30 days+$164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$15
sports 41% +$183
crypto 15% +$8
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +80.2% +63.0% 50% 50% +181.7%
≤30d 2 +80.2% +63.0% 50% 50% +181.7%
≤90d 3 +88.9% +70.9% 67% 67% +163.8%
all 6 +49.2% +35.0% 67% 50% +113.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.0% 50% +113.8%
10% +22.1% 33% +93.3%
15% +10.3% 33% +74.6%
20% -0.5% 33% +57.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +192% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt +136% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$5 · ×9.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×19.14 per $1 lost it wins $19.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized+$204
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage155d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-14%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $22 $11 −$11 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $67 +$175 +260%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 09 $18 +$19 +106%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Feb 02 $38 +$8 +22%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $2 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $52 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $16 14d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $13 14d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 36¢ $37 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 36¢ $144 14d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 45¢ $11 22d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 42¢ $37 39d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 93d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 107d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 20¢ $18 134d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? BUY No 82¢ $38 154d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 7¢ $30 155d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 155d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 155d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.11 · official $87.11 (match) · 112 history records