Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:25:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5712…720f sports 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$163 (-11%) realized +$5 · open −$168
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate61%11W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$532now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$67
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$234
sports 31% +$22
crypto 3% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +11.2% +0.6% 67% 58% +4.1%
≤30d 18 -3.1% -12.3% 61% 50% -10.6%
≤90d 18 -3.1% -12.3% 61% 50% -10.6%
all 18 -3.1% -12.3% 61% 50% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 50% -10.6%
10% -20.7% 39% -19.2%
15% -28.4% 39% -27.0%
20% -35.4% 28% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$32 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$532
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$168
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses11 / 7
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions5
Markets (closed)18 / 23
History coverage13d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $280 $204 −$76 (-27%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $280 $194 −$86 (-31%)
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 53¢ 48¢ $60 $54 −$6 (-10%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 27 $61 +$7 +11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $65 +$13 +20%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $15 +$8 +52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $61 +$41 +67%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $61 +$2 +3%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $27 +$12 +46%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$25 +250%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $27 −$22 -79%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $58 +$37 +65%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $27 −$27 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$35 +70%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $51 $0 +1%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $27 −$27 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $80 +$31 +39%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $107 −$106 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $61 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 68¢ $67 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $65 25h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 65¢ $15 25h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 25h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) SELL Senegal 61¢ $62 25h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 58¢ $61 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $61 3d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 42¢ $10 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 60¢ $61 3d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 13¢ $6 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $27 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 42¢ $27 4d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 59¢ $27 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 60¢ $58 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $86 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 64¢ $51 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 7d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $27 7d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $111 10d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $26 10d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $54 10d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $107 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $287 13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $287 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $532.09 · official $532.09 (match) · 49 history records