Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:50:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
57 0x5712…09a9 world 4 markets active 17h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,828 (+1%) realized +$4,810 · open +$1,018
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$110,390per market
Trades / day72.2pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$330,924now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% +$932
other 23% +$4,093
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +5.2% -4.8% 100% 0% -4.8%
≤30d 1 +5.2% -4.8% 100% 0% -4.8%
≤90d 1 +5.2% -4.8% 100% 0% -4.8%
all 1 +5.2% -4.8% 100% 0% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.8% 0% -4.8%
10% -13.9% 0% -13.9%
15% ← realistic here -22.2% 0% -22.2%
20% -29.9% 0% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4,007 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$330,924
Realized+$4,810
Unrealized+$1,018
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1 / 4
History coverage11d
Avg bet$110,390
Trades / day72.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $233,882 $234,259 +$377 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $73,089 $73,644 +$555 (+1%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $22,935 $23,021 +$86 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 17 $76,692 +$4,007 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $63 16h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 16h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 16h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 16h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 16h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $46 16h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 16h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 16h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $54 16h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7,263 16h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $0 17h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 45h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 45h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 45h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $58 45h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 45h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 45h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 45h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 45h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 45h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $56 45h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 45h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 45h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 45h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 45h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 45h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 45h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 45h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 45h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $50 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $330,923.83 · official $330,923.83 (match) · 809 history records