Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:33:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
57 0x5711…2f81 other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$30,391 (+108%) realized +$30,912 · open −$521
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%11W / 41L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$512per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$820
7 days−$820
14 days−$820
30 days−$820
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$42,044
other 34% −$8,651
culture 11% −$3,119
crypto 10% +$1,297
finance 4% −$852
politics 2% −$436
sports 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 48 -12.3% -20.7% 23% 23% +167.3%
all 52 -19.1% -26.8% 21% 21% +129.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 21% +129.8%
10% -33.8% 21% +107.8%
15% -40.2% 21% +87.8%
20% -46.0% 21% +69.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +177% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +138% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4,309 vs −$407 · ×10.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.84 per $1 lost it wins $2.84
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$30,912
Unrealized−$521
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses11 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)52 / 55
History coverage96d
Avg bet$512
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $100 $34 −$66 (-66%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 26¢ 1¢ $451 $15 −$436 (-97%)
Will Brian Harman win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $30 $10 −$20 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $225 −$220 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $511 −$500 -98%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $1,158 −$1,122 -97%
Will Nick Taylor win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $490 −$477 -97%
Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $206 −$200 -97%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $514 −$500 -97%
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Matti Schmid win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $112 −$109 -97%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $51 −$50 -97%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $531 −$511 -96%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 12? May 12 $998 −$852 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 26 $60 +$128 +213%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 25 $169 +$63 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 25 $200 +$418 +209%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 25 $292 −$256 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 25 $200 +$125 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 25 $300 +$436 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 25 $300 −$283 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 25 $601 +$467 +78%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 24 $100 +$103 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 24 $200 +$340 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 24 $260 −$246 -94%
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $498 −$498 -100%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $798 −$544 -68%
Will Hao-Tong Li win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $481 −$481 -100%
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $404 −$404 -100%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $348 −$62 -18%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $330 −$330 -100%
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $249 −$249 -100%
Will Gary Woodland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $478 −$445 -93%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $1,001 −$911 -91%
Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $100 −$72 -72%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 08 $456 −$78 -17%
Will Billy Horschel win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Tom Kim win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Andrew Novak win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Brian Harman win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $200 −$200 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $1,271 +$932 +73%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $2,759 +$16,992 +616%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $2,543 +$27,395 +1077%
Will Nick Taylor win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Sungjae Im win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 31 $4,170 −$3,097 -74%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Train Dreams win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awar Mar 15 $400 −$400 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 1h
Will Brian Harman win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 6h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $225 6h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $511 22h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 26¢ $464 29d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 19? BUY Up 9¢ $104 31d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 19? BUY Up 12¢ $430 31d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 19? BUY Up 27¢ $624 31d
Will Nick Taylor win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 12¢ $284 33d
Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 33d
Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 33d
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 33d
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 33d
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 6¢ $206 33d
Will Matti Schmid win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $112 33d
Will Nick Taylor win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 6¢ $206 33d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 33d
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $206 33d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15? BUY Up 4¢ $114 35d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15? BUY Up 5¢ $104 35d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15? BUY Up 6¢ $208 35d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15? BUY Up 5¢ $105 35d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 12? SELL Up 3¢ $105 38d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 12? BUY Up 2¢ $168 38d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 12? BUY Up 4¢ $831 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $188 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $60 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $224 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $169 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.59 · official $59.59 (match) · 133 history records