Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:09:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
57 0x570f…1907 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$177 (+5%) realized +$564 · open −$387
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$428per market
Trades / day24.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1,513now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$282
crypto 19% +$25
sports 13% −$109
world 9% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-38.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -32.0% -38.5% 60% 40% -14.8%
≤30d 5 -32.0% -38.5% 60% 40% -14.8%
≤90d 5 -32.0% -38.5% 60% 40% -14.8%
all 5 -32.0% -38.5% 60% 40% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.5% 40% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -44.4% 0% -23.0%
15% -49.8% 0% -30.4%
20% -54.7% 0% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$70 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,513
Realized+$564
Unrealized−$387
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$428
Trades / day24.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $1,100 $1,084 −$16 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 23¢ 16¢ $300 $215 −$85 (-28%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 46¢ 20¢ $500 $214 −$286 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $101 +$21 +21%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $334 −$130 -39%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $201 +$30 +15%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $656 +$25 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $504 51m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 57m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $504 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 23¢ $307 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 55¢ $405 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 54¢ $155 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $122 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $439 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 45¢ $203 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 58¢ $71 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 63¢ $61 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $101 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $231 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $340 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $340 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 93¢ $50 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $250 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $56 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,512.85 · official $1,513.01 (match) · 28 history records