Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:10:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

57 0x570c…434d sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$2per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit80%portable

Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$0

7 days+$0

14 days+$0

30 days+$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-4.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+5.7%	-4.4%	100%	0%	-4.4%
≤30d	1	+5.7%	-4.4%	100%	0%	-4.4%
≤90d	1	+5.7%	-4.4%	100%	0%	-4.4%
all	1	+5.7%	-4.4%	100%	0%	-4.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.4%	0%	-4.4%
10%	-13.5%	0%	-13.5%
15%	-21.9%	0%	-21.9%
20%	-29.5%	0%	-29.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +6% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$4

Realized+$0

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions4

Markets (closed)1 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$2

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Yes	28¢	36¢	$1	$1	+$0 (+30%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	Yes	34¢	34¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	Yes	29¢	28¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	47¢	40¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-14%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$5	$0	+6%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$1	1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	BUY Yes	34¢	$1	1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$1	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$5	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	47¢	$1	4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$5	4h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.13 · official $4.13 (match) · 6 history records