Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:16:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

57 0x570b…12e0 crypto 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$35 (-9%) realized −$35 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip

Net edge-17%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$99per market

Trades / day0.8pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-16.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+22.9%	+11.2%	100%	67%	+17.3%
≤30d	4	-7.8%	-16.6%	75%	50%	-15.7%
≤90d	4	-7.8%	-16.6%	75%	50%	-15.7%
all	4	-7.8%	-16.6%	75%	50%	-15.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-16.6%	50%	-15.7%
10%	-24.6%	25%	-23.8%
15%	-31.9%	25%	-31.2%
20%	-38.5%	0%	-37.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 88% · top 2 95% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -7% too few recent

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$28 vs −$110 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.76 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$35

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 4

History coverage9d

Avg bet$99

Trades / day0.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Jun 18	$26	+$4	+15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Jun 18	$101	+$6	+6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$153	+$73	+48%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?	Jun 09	$115	−$110	-95%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	SELL Up	82¢	$29	44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	BUY Up	69¢	$26	45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	SELL Down	88¢	$108	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	BUY Down	81¢	$101	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$226	30h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$153	2d
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?	BUY No	2¢	$115	9d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records