Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:02:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

57 0x570a…009d other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$33 (+12%) realized −$3 · open +$36

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip

Net edge-26%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$31per market

Trades / day10.0pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$226now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-19.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-11.3%	-19.8%	0%	0%	-19.8%
≤30d	1	-11.3%	-19.8%	0%	0%	-19.8%
≤90d	1	-11.3%	-19.8%	0%	0%	-19.8%
all	1	-11.3%	-19.8%	0%	0%	-19.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-19.8%	0%	-19.8%
10%	-27.5%	0%	-27.5%
15%	-34.5%	0%	-34.5%
20%	-40.9%	0%	-40.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -11% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$3 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$226

Realized−$3

Unrealized+$36

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 1

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions7

Markets (closed)1 / 9

History coverage1d

Avg bet$31

Trades / day10.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Yes	33¢	82¢	$35	$87	+$52 (+148%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	Portugal	46¢	90¢	$34	$68	+$33 (+97%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?	Yes	15¢	13¢	$30	$25	−$5 (-16%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan?	Yes	8¢	6¢	$30	$21	−$9 (-31%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists	Yes	18¢	14¢	$15	$12	−$3 (-22%)
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals	Yes	35¢	22¢	$15	$10	−$5 (-36%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Over	48¢	6¢	$30	$4	−$26 (-88%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan?	Jun 23	$31	−$3	-11%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	BUY Portugal	46¢	$35	1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists	BUY Yes	18¢	$15	1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	35¢	$15	1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	48¢	$30	1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan?	SELL Yes	14¢	$27	1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	15¢	$31	1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	15¢	$31	1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	8¢	$31	1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	33¢	$36	1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Tea	BUY	24¢	$51	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.65 · official $275.65 · 10 history records