Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x570a…d4c6 crypto 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$67 (-14%) realized −$57 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%14W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$54
14 days−$54
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$32
sports 27% −$69
other 9% +$16
world 3% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -13.3% -21.6% 41% 38% -21.8%
≤30d 37 -19.3% -27.0% 38% 35% -24.1%
≤90d 37 -19.3% -27.0% 38% 35% -24.1%
all 37 -19.3% -27.0% 38% 35% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 35% -24.1%
10% -34.0% 27% -31.4%
15% -40.4% 24% -38.0%
20% -46.2% 22% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$57
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses14 / 23
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)37 / 43
History coverage18d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 76¢ 76¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? No 71¢ 69¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 49¢ 48¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 30¢ 22¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-28%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 51¢ 2¢ $8 $0 −$7 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 +$23 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$14 -27%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $8 +$8 +105%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -91%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $8 +$7 +83%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $8 +$9 +114%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 +$9 +152%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 30 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 30 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 30 $5 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $8 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $8 13h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 51¢ $8 17h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $8 17h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 48¢ $8 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $17 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $31 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $18 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 20h
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Thanasi Kokkinakis 74¢ $10 33h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 73¢ $10 33h
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 51¢ $10 33h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 61¢ $10 33h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $10 33h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $10 33h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $8 37h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $8 37h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 54¢ $8 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.63 · official $41.75 (match) · 75 history records