Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:42:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5706…514f sports 809 markets active 16h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$492 (-12%) realized −$492 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate30%240W / 567L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day30.6pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$36
14 days−$131
30 days−$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$233
other 19% −$117
crypto 18% −$116
politics 4% −$9
world 4% −$5
weather 3% −$40
finance 1% −$7
culture 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -32.7% -39.1% 19% 19% -31.7%
≤30d 241 -24.2% -31.4% 21% 19% -26.7%
≤90d 807 -14.8% -22.9% 30% 24% -20.8%
all 807 -14.8% -22.9% 30% 24% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.9% 24% -20.8%
10% ← realistic here -30.3% 20% -28.4%
15% -37.0% 16% -35.3%
20% -43.2% 12% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$492
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses240 / 567
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions2
Markets (closed)807 / 809
History coverage86d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day30.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 807 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 101 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +105%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +146%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -60%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $4 −$2 -57%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $2 $0 -10%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $2 +$1 +40%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $1 $0 +56%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $2 $0 -1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$4 +262%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $3 −$2 -67%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $1 −$1 -70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $13 +$2 +14%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $2 +$1 +58%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 $0 -16%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $2 $0 -10%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 11 $4 $0 -6%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $4 $0 -6%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $4 $0 -7%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 11 $3 $0 -7%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $2 $0 -5%
Will Ethereum reach $2,750 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -58%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $5 +$2 +33%
Spurs vs. Knicks: Odd/Even Score Jun 11 $17 −$5 -28%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 10 $7 −$1 -9%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $8 −$3 -38%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $4 −$1 -36%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $4 −$1 -19%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $6 −$4 -66%
Spurs vs. Knicks: Team to Score First Jun 10 $10 −$4 -38%
Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 10 $3 −$1 -25%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $7 $0 +6%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Michael Zheng Jun 10 $3 $0 -2%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $5 +$5 +88%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $0 $0 -97%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $3 +$2 +70%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $3 +$4 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 16h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 16h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 48¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 40¢ $2 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 3d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3d
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 9¢ $1 4d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 3¢ $0 4d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Colorado Rockies 31¢ $2 4d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 6¢ $0 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Chicago Cubs 67¢ $3 4d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 16¢ $1 4d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 24¢ $1 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays 23¢ $1 4d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 26¢ $1 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 14¢ $1 4d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 24¢ $1 4d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 49¢ $2 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 47¢ $2 4d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 48¢ $2 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 38¢ $2 4d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 33¢ $2 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Seattle Mariners 17¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.76 · official $5.76 (match) · 2948 history records