Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:41:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

57 0x5702…c452 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$141 (+25%) realized +$142 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip

Net edge+44%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown1%max

Avg bet$93per market

Trades / day2.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)+44.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+59.6%	+44.4%	75%	75%	+42.6%
≤30d	4	+59.6%	+44.4%	75%	75%	+42.6%
≤90d	4	+59.6%	+44.4%	75%	75%	+42.6%
all	4	+59.6%	+44.4%	75%	75%	+42.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+44.4%	75%	+42.6%
10%	+30.6%	75%	+29.0%
15%	+18.0%	75%	+16.5%
20%	+6.4%	75%	+5.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 39% · top 2 77% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +58% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +60% · $-wt +58% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$75 vs −$2 · ×32.77 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×98.31 per $1 lost it wins $98.31

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$82

Realized+$142

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage5d

Avg bet$93

Trades / day2.0

Drawdown1%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	52¢	50¢	$63	$61	−$2 (-3%)
Mexico leading at halftime?	Yes	36¢	38¢	$20	$21	+$1 (+3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$101	+$86	+84%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$99	+$51	+51%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 20	$101	−$2	-2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$84	+$88	+105%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	52¢	$64	1h
Mexico leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	36¢	$20	1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	51¢	$84	1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	52¢	$88	1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY	53¢	$101	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$48	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$51	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	62¢	$99	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	62¢	$101	3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$84	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.50 · official $81.50 (match) · 13 history records