Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:00:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56ff…81a0 sports 361 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 134d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$24,363 (-22%) realized −$24,284 · open −$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%201W / 155L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$312per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Fees−$535est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$2,855now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 135d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$1,102
other 13% −$2,425
crypto 3% −$477
world 0% +$184
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -34.7% -41.0% 42% 42% +6.2%
≤30d 146 -11.0% -19.5% 53% 47% -14.5%
≤90d 299 -16.0% -24.0% 49% 44% -33.7%
all 356 -4.8% -13.9% 56% 53% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 53% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 45% -20.7%
15% -29.6% 33% -28.4%
20% -36.5% 22% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$155 vs −$225 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$2,855
Realized−$24,284
Unrealized−$79
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses201 / 155
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$535
Open positions4
Markets (closed)356 / 361
History coverage135d ⚠
Avg bet$312
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 356 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 84¢ 100¢ $1,201 $1,429 +$228 (+19%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 78¢ 76¢ $1,014 $982 −$32 (-3%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 57¢ 44¢ $581 $444 −$138 (-24%)
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 55¢ 0¢ $137 $0 −$137 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $2,263 +$693 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$3 -61%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $405 +$285 +70%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,250 −$801 -64%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $2,098 +$679 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,421 +$679 +48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1,238 +$249 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$1 -46%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $304 +$96 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $367 +$73 +20%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $536 +$174 +32%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $100 −$40 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$17 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $94 +$28 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $88 −$77 -88%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $193 +$93 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $126 +$68 +54%
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 15 $480 −$355 -74%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +13%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,419 −$1,419 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $499 +$176 +35%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $960 +$286 +30%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $911 +$57 +6%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $149 +$48 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $275 +$49 +18%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $52 +$24 +46%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $67 +$9 +14%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $21 +$6 +27%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $88 +$72 +81%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $380 +$32 +8%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $342 +$37 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $36 +$64 +178%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $250 +$31 +12%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $52 +$22 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $139 2h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $589 2h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $1,207 2h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 78¢ $1,021 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 12h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $2,263 12h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $39 25h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $7 25h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $14 25h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $67 25h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $2 25h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $115 25h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $162 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 23¢ $449 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $62 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $8 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $61 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $61 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $61 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $61 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $95 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $36 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $29 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $16 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $9 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $16 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,854.77 · official $2,854.77 (match) · 3500 history records