Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:04:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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56 0x56fb…f621 crypto 1763 markets active 3d ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d only
✗ bot/MM pace (91 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$72 (-1%) realized −$68 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate93%1733W / 137L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day91.2pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$683
7 days−$686
14 days−$701
30 days−$702
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$1
other 15% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (91 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 551 -19.8% -27.4% 79% 1% -42.4%
≤30d 1870 -6.0% -14.9% 93% 1% -18.0%
≤90d 1870 -6.0% -14.9% 93% 1% -18.0%
all 1870 -6.0% -14.9% 93% 1% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover91.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 1% -18.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 0% -25.9%
15% -30.5% 0% -33.0%
20% -37.3% 0% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$68
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses1733 / 137
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1870 / 1763
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day91.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1870 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? No 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will João Bernardo Vieira win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? No 100¢ 98¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will José Mário Vaz win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? No 100¢ 97¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Baciro Djá win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? No 100¢ 97¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will PS win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? No 100¢ 96¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will FLING win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? No 100¢ 94¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? No 100¢ 88¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? Yes 100¢ 45¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 137 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - January 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 21, 2PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 1, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 2, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 7, 12PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 22, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 4AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin above 75,200 on May 23, 10AM ET? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 28, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 23, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum above 2,305 on May 8, 2PM ET? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 9PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 6, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 6, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 6, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 18, 6AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 1, 11PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 22, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 13, 11PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 3d
Ethereum above 1,690 on June 13, 10PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $3 3d
Ethereum above 1,670 on June 13, 10PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin above 65,200 on June 13, 10PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin above 65,000 on June 13, 10PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin above 64,800 on June 13, 10PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin above 64,400 on June 13, 10PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 13, 10PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 13, 10PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 3d
Ethereum above 1,690 on June 13, 9PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $3 3d
Ethereum above 1,670 on June 13, 9PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin above 65,000 on June 13, 9PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin above 64,800 on June 13, 9PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 13, 9PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 13, 9PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin above 65,000 on June 13, 7PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin above 64,600 on June 13, 7PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 13, 7PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.27 · official $34.27 (match) · 3500 history records