Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:15:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
56 0x56fa…cf06 sports 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 211d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,030 (-21%) realized −$1,025 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%23W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$347now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days+$182
14 days+$182
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$216
other 37% −$573
crypto 14% −$417
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.7% -10.2% 40% 35% +1.0%
≤30d 27 -17.0% -24.9% 37% 33% -7.7%
≤90d 27 -17.0% -24.9% 37% 33% -7.7%
all 53 -7.7% -16.5% 43% 42% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 42% -25.0%
10% -24.5% 40% -32.2%
15% -31.8% 36% -38.7%
20% -38.5% 28% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$72 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

211d coverage
Net worth$347
Realized−$1,025
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses23 / 30
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 56
History coverage211d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $332 $329 −$2 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $217 +$103 +48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on Jun 20 $153 +$246 +161%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $153 +$11 +7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $146 −$3 -2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 −$93 -90%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $307 −$300 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$9 -91%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$18 -18%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$103 +101%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +69%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -49%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $20 +$74 +360%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $132 +$129 +98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 31 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 31 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 31 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 31 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $224 −$179 -80%
Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Northern Illinois Nov 28 $337 −$337 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on November 28? Nov 28 $378 −$338 -89%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs OG (BO1) Nov 28 $40 +$21 +52%
Valorant: MIBR Female vs KRÜ Blaze - Map 2 Winner Nov 28 $207 +$90 +44%
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on November 28? Nov 28 $35 −$23 -67%
Valorant: MIBR Female vs KRÜ Blaze - Map 1 Winner Nov 28 $56 −$56 -100%
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Northwestern Wildcats Nov 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bangladesh T20 Series: Bangladesh vs Ireland (Game 1) Nov 27 $20 +$6 +30%
Valorant: Karmine Corp GC vs KRÜ Blaze (BO3) Nov 27 $100 +$230 +230%
Valorant: Karmine Corp GC vs KRÜ Blaze - Map 2 Winner Nov 27 $100 +$41 +41%
Valorant: MIBR Female vs G2 Gozen (BO3) Nov 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) Nov 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Pistons vs. Celtics Nov 26 $242 −$190 -79%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Legacy (BO3) Nov 26 $100 −$89 -89%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs OG (BO1) Nov 26 $20 +$10 +52%
Valorant: Karmine Corp GC vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO3) Nov 26 $50 +$26 +52%
Clippers vs. Lakers Nov 26 $66 +$34 +51%
Stars vs. Oilers Nov 26 $114 +$128 +112%
Hawks vs. Wizards Nov 26 $20 +$66 +332%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-25? Nov 25 $154 −$154 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Heroic (BO1) Nov 25 $8 +$6 +74%
Spread: 49ers (-7.5) Nov 25 $20 +$21 +104%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 25 $100 +$28 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $335 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score AND Will Belgium win on 2026- BUY 31¢ $102 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $320 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $217 19h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on BUY 38¢ $153 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $164 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 93¢ $153 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 67¢ $144 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $10 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $146 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 25h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Australia? BUY Yes $0 46h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Australia? BUY Yes $0 46h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Australia? BUY Yes $0 46h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Australia? BUY Yes $0 46h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Australia? BUY Yes $0 46h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Australia? BUY Yes $0 46h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Australia? BUY Yes $0 46h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Australia? BUY Yes $1 47h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Australia? BUY Yes $3 47h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Australia? BUY Yes $0 47h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Australia? BUY Yes $0 47h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Australia? BUY Yes $0 47h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 47h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 47h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Australia? BUY Yes $10 47h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $346.64 · official $446.70 · 146 history records