Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:32:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56f8…01d4 other 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate14%14W / 89L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$14
politics 27% −$7
sports 6% +$32
tech 5% −$1
crypto 5% −$1
world 3% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 65 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 103 -2.0% -11.3% 14% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 6% -9.5%
10% -19.8% 4% -18.2%
15% -27.5% 3% -26.1%
20% -34.6% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×6.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses14 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)103 / 104
History coverage120d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $208 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $275 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $35 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $255 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $433 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $249 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $212 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $203 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $237 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $428 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $257 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $191 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $199 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $235 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $218 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $376 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $639 −$1 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 14 $257 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $216 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $243 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 13 $434 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $425 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $231 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $178 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $511 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 11 $228 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 08 $177 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $216 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 08 $209 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 07 $242 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 07 $385 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 07 $233 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $219 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $661 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $187 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $186 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 05 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 04 $253 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $215 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $837 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 03 $244 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 03 $254 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $209 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $661 −$1 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $179 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 1h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 3d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 10d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 11d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 11d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 13d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 17d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $255 17d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $255 26d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $238 26d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $238 27d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $248 27d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $248 39d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $235 61d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $235 63d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $249 63d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $249 63d
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $212 63d
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $212 63d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $203 63d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $203 63d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $237 63d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $237 64d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $187 64d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $187 64d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $257 64d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $257 64d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $191 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.99 · official $24.99 (match) · 332 history records