Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:46:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
56 0x56f7…5581 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$100 (+19%) realized −$1 · open +$101
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$78
7 days+$78
14 days+$78
30 days+$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$50
sports 26% +$101
politics 15% +$37
economics 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +24.8% +12.9% 75% 50% +10.9%
≤30d 4 +24.8% +12.9% 75% 50% +10.9%
≤90d 6 +22.9% +11.2% 83% 50% +10.4%
all 6 +22.9% +11.2% 83% 50% +10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.2% 50% +10.4%
10% +0.6% 50% -0.2%
15% -9.2% 50% -9.8%
20% -18.1% 17% -18.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$8 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.64 per $1 lost it wins $11.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$240
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$101
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage71d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 50¢ $139 $240 +$101 (+73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $94 −$8 -9%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $91 +$9 +10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $104 +$49 +47%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 20 $54 +$28 +51%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $27 $0 +1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $25 +$9 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $46 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $96 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 64¢ $86 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $91 9h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $94 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $104 23h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $82 23h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $27 66d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 65¢ $54 66d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 99¢ $34 69d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 72¢ $25 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.91 · official $211.40 · 14 history records