Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:39:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56f6…b42b world 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,146 (-19%) realized −$4,144 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate49%25W / 26L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$419per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$185
7 days+$153
14 days+$186
30 days−$384
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$2,185
other 30% −$1,293
sports 12% −$262
crypto 4% −$561
politics 2% +$44
economics 2% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.1% -9.4% 58% 50% -6.7%
≤30d 14 -4.2% -13.4% 57% 50% -15.5%
≤90d 15 -8.3% -17.1% 53% 47% -15.9%
all 51 +7.1% -3.1% 49% 39% -27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 39% -27.2%
10% -12.4% 33% -34.2%
15% -20.8% 33% -40.6%
20% -28.6% 22% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$272 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$4,144
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses25 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage128d
Avg bet$419
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 56¢ 44¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $216 −$191 -88%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 19 $10 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $15 +$7 +45%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $7 +$4 +65%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $176 +$19 +11%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1,811 +$859 +47%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $2,365 −$546 -23%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $202 +$4 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 05 $237 +$33 +14%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $768 −$570 -74%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $50 −$33 -66%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 20 $725 −$157 -22%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $250 +$371 +148%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $500 +$12 +2%
Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch? Mar 04 $3,480 +$100 +3%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $102 +$333 +326%
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Rese Mar 01 $26 −$26 -100%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Feb 28 $350 −$350 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $32 +$45 +140%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 28 $764 −$669 -88%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $2,682 −$1,892 -70%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $670 +$19 +3%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $614 −$125 -20%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $1,774 −$1,227 -69%
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs Chinggis Warriors (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Feb 26 $350 +$150 +43%
Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Feb 26 $280 −$280 -100%
Celtics vs. Nuggets Feb 26 $351 −$246 -70%
Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Feb 26 $105 +$289 +274%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Feb 25 $322 +$142 +44%
Magic vs. Lakers Feb 25 $6 +$13 +221%
Will the State of the Union be 100 minutes or longer? Feb 25 $3 $0 -4%
Will the State of the Union be 120 minutes or longer? Feb 25 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the 2026 State of the Union address last 100 minutes or longer? Feb 25 $139 +$24 +17%
Will George Santos attend the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 25 $6 +$11 +170%
Spread: Warriors (-1.5) Feb 25 $199 −$199 -100%
Warriors vs. Pelicans Feb 25 $422 −$422 -100%
Will the State of the Union be 110 minutes or longer? Feb 25 $60 +$24 +40%
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market cl Feb 23 $463 −$30 -7%
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 23 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 19 $110 −$36 -32%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 16 $84 +$39 +47%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 16 $432 +$250 +58%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-14? Feb 15 $5 +$8 +150%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 13 $503 +$48 +9%
Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh p Feb 12 $16 −$2 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes $25 1h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL Yes 80¢ $10 5h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $195 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $6 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $12 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $80 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $831 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $4 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $594 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $244 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $1,005 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $176 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $486 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $329 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $220 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $24 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $24 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $166 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $434 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $137 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $70 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $212 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $4 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $494 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 6d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $7 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.95 · official $7.95 (match) · 516 history records