Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:08:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56f4…9ec5 sports 84 markets active 3h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (1050 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4,071 (-3%) realized −$4,071 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate43%36W / 48L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,503per market
Trades / day1049.5pace
Fees−$1,715est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$320
other 26% −$5,486
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1050 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -8.7% -17.4% 43% 8% -14.1%
≤30d 84 -8.7% -17.4% 43% 8% -14.1%
≤90d 84 -8.7% -17.4% 43% 8% -14.1%
all 84 -8.7% -17.4% 43% 8% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1049.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 8% -14.1%
10% -25.3% 5% -22.3%
15% ← realistic here -32.5% 4% -29.8%
20% -39.2% 4% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$1,225) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$329 vs −$354 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,071
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses36 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1,715
Open positions0
Markets (closed)84 / 84
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,503
Trades / day1049.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 84 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $1,217 −$140 -12%
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 26 $98 −$97 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $5,289 −$259 -5%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $44 +$3 +7%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $1,918 +$268 +14%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $380 +$11 +3%
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $906 −$13 -2%
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $124 +$1 +1%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $1,439 +$48 +3%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $1,130 +$103 +9%
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $407 −$105 -26%
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $778 +$56 +7%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $1,299 +$29 +2%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $180 −$175 -97%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $1,541 −$1,510 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $4,254 +$17 +0%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $42 −$41 -97%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $594 +$56 +9%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $1 $0 +4%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $3,299 +$19 +1%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $1,219 +$1,314 +108%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1,168 −$282 -24%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,529 −$496 -32%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $204 −$46 -22%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $194 +$3 +2%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $1,017 −$57 -6%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $3,217 −$3 -0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $3,037 −$598 -20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $11,518 +$3,052 +26%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $7,946 −$665 -8%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $439 −$432 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $103 +$4 +4%
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $648 −$52 -8%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $501 +$4 +1%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $857 +$34 +4%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $7,641 −$65 -1%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $720 +$12 +2%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $109 −$22 -20%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $50 −$29 -59%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $5,007 +$185 +4%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $86 −$12 -14%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $4,864 +$64 +1%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $778 −$151 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 2¢ $0 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $134 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $584 3h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 2¢ $15 3h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 2¢ $33 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 72¢ $444 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 72¢ $1,209 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 72¢ $2 3h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 2¢ $8 3h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 2¢ $0 3h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 2¢ $42 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 3¢ $49 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 70¢ $133 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 3¢ $0 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $503 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $505 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $505 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 30¢ $1,615 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 30¢ $22 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 30¢ $6 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 30¢ $15 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 30¢ $364 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 30¢ $6 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 30¢ $16 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 30¢ $53 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 30¢ $22 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 30¢ $22 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 3¢ $1 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 37¢ $510 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 36¢ $510 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1325 history records