Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:27:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
56 0x56f1…e83e crypto 440 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,139 (-6%) realized −$1,338 · open +$199
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%229W / 208L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day51.6pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$801now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$465
7 days−$917
14 days−$917
30 days−$1,296
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$592
sports 37% −$535
other 15% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 198 +11.8% +1.1% 54% 52% -18.9%
≤30d 437 +3.6% -6.2% 52% 51% -17.6%
≤90d 437 +3.6% -6.2% 52% 51% -17.6%
all 437 +3.6% -6.2% 52% 51% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.2% 51% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -15.2% 49% -25.5%
15% -23.4% 45% -32.7%
20% -30.9% 34% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$31 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$801
Realized−$1,338
Unrealized+$199
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses229 / 208
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions2
Markets (closed)437 / 440
History coverage24d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day51.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 437 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 72¢ $530 $715 +$185 (+35%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 54¢ $72 $86 +$14 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 203 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 18 $465 +$149 +32%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola Jun 18 $402 +$64 +16%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $399 −$395 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $39 +$57 +146%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 17 $50 −$49 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $70 +$19 +27%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $506 −$487 -96%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 17 $503 +$9 +2%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto Jun 17 $101 +$87 +86%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $284 +$77 +27%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith Jun 17 $78 +$27 +34%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $151 −$150 -99%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova Jun 17 $201 +$22 +11%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Maxim Mrva Jun 17 $176 +$32 +18%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $86 +$92 +106%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $111 +$89 +79%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 17 $38 +$3 +7%
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 17 $33 +$12 +38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $388 −$385 -99%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $212 +$88 +42%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 17 $246 +$54 +22%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 17 $157 +$93 +60%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $376 +$73 +19%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 17 $164 −$7 -5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $361 +$189 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $241 +$58 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $416 −$415 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $182 +$118 +64%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $187 +$41 +22%
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag Jun 16 $111 +$64 +57%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $644 +$183 +28%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $282 +$65 +23%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $231 +$66 +28%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $204 +$30 +15%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $46 −$45 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$12 +91%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $227 −$167 -74%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$11 +80%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $38 −$37 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$8 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $73 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $537 1h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng SELL Laslo Djere 82¢ $559 1h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng SELL Laslo Djere 82¢ $4 1h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng SELL Laslo Djere 82¢ $4 1h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng SELL Laslo Djere 82¢ $16 1h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng SELL Laslo Djere 82¢ $16 1h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng SELL Laslo Djere 82¢ $4 1h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng SELL Laslo Djere 82¢ $4 1h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Laslo Djere 62¢ $465 2h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola SELL Remy Bertola 95¢ $434 2h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola SELL Remy Bertola 95¢ $15 2h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola SELL Remy Bertola 95¢ $5 2h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola SELL Remy Bertola 95¢ $5 2h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola SELL Remy Bertola 95¢ $5 2h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 82¢ $402 2h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 66¢ $399 5h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 18¢ $92 7h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $39 17h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 49¢ $50 18h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $89 18h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $70 20h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Thiago Seyboth Wild 80¢ $9 21h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Thiago Seyboth Wild 80¢ $0 21h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Thiago Seyboth Wild 80¢ $4 21h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 62¢ $506 21h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano SELL Daniel Rincon 85¢ $407 21h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano SELL Daniel Rincon 85¢ $1 21h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano SELL Daniel Rincon 85¢ $100 21h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano SELL Daniel Rincon 85¢ $4 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $801.15 · official $803.80 (match) · 1341 history records