Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:21:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
56 0x56f0…0e11 other 184 markets active 3d ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,891 (-1%) realized −$1,895 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate21%39W / 144L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$916per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$313now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$22
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$84
politics 37% −$96
sports 9% −$1,820
world 4% +$82
culture 3% −$4
economics 3% −$3
crypto 1% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 96 -2.1% -11.4% 7% 6% -11.0%
all 183 +1.2% -8.5% 21% 14% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 14% -10.6%
10% -17.2% 13% -19.1%
15% -25.2% 12% -26.9%
20% -32.5% 9% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$1,396) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$20 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$313
Realized−$1,895
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses39 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)183 / 184
History coverage166d
Avg bet$916
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $309 $313 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $1,664 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 23 $451 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1,230 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $297 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $2,509 −$4 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 22 $308 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $659 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $631 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $4,646 −$7 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $565 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $683 −$1 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $2,122 −$2 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 10 $783 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,516 −$5 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,972 −$3 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $701 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $3,997 −$6 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,537 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $3,634 −$4 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $883 −$1 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 06 $63 −$63 -100%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $992 −$2 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $918 $0 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $54 +$52 +97%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $877 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,507 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 01 $362 +$1 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $2,722 −$3 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $690 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 28 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $1,775 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $3,952 −$5 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $1,023 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $985 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $59 +$67 +114%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $887 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $957 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 22 $1,955 −$2 -0%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $3,237 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $1,546 −$2 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? May 19 $493 −$4 -1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $1,045 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $270 2d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $270 2d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $451 3d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $451 3d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $389 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $390 4d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $296 4d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $297 4d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $244 4d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $244 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $308 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $308 5d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $426 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $427 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $658 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $659 9d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $630 9d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $631 9d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $683 9d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $684 10d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $580 11d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $581 11d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $564 11d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $565 11d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $682 11d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $683 12d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $708 13d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $709 13d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $708 14d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $709 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $312.89 · official $312.89 (match) · 660 history records