Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:54:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
56 0x56f0…da35 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$214 (-5%) realized −$175 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$3,461now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$326
sports 22% +$229
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -15.6% -23.6% 25% 25% -22.4%
≤30d 4 -15.6% -23.6% 25% 25% -22.4%
≤90d 4 -15.6% -23.6% 25% 25% -22.4%
all 4 -15.6% -23.6% 25% 25% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.6% 25% -22.4%
10% ← realistic here -30.9% 25% -29.8%
15% -37.6% 25% -36.6%
20% -43.7% 25% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$243 vs −$100 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3,461
Realized−$175
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions19
Markets (closed)4 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $600 $596 −$4 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $600 $587 −$13 (-2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$243 +238%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 58m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 59m
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 59m
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 59m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 59m
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 59m
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 59m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $503 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $504 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 8¢ $51 22h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 24h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 24h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 24h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,460.85 · official $3,461.07 (match) · 33 history records