Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:20:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56ef…190a other 166 markets active 2h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,076 (-1%) realized −$2,076 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate19%31W / 133L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,204per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$711now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$6
14 days−$18
30 days−$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$266
politics 32% −$79
sports 8% −$1,756
economics 5% −$4
world 1% +$1
culture 1% −$2
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.0% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 35 -8.7% -17.4% 6% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 94 -3.5% -12.7% 5% 1% -10.6%
all 164 -2.2% -11.5% 19% 9% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 9% -10.5%
10% -20.0% 9% -19.1%
15% -27.7% 6% -26.9%
20% -34.8% 4% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,535) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$19 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$711
Realized−$2,076
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses31 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)164 / 166
History coverage160d
Avg bet$1,204
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $357 $358 +$0 (+0%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $353 $353 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,230 −$2 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $422 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $1,623 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $535 +$4 +1%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,111 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $385 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $3,572 −$4 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,805 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $548 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,208 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $776 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $6,199 −$7 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,260 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $617 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,487 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $736 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,628 −$4 -0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 02 $91 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $805 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $833 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $2,613 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $819 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $877 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $2,653 −$3 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $3,995 −$5 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 25 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $1,483 −$2 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 22 $2,448 −$3 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $2,890 −$4 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $2,578 −$3 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 May 22 $69 +$57 +83%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $5,398 −$6 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,519 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,533 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $3,068 −$5 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $2,829 −$5 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $1,551 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,486 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 08 $1,302 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,299 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,656 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $528 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $353 1h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $528 3h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $421 43h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $422 44h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $574 4d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $575 4d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $447 4d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $448 5d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $550 5d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $551 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $542 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $542 6d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $385 6d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $385 7d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $550 7d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $551 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $476 8d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $477 8d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $517 8d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $518 9d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $357 9d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $712 12d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $714 12d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $547 12d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $548 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $711 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $712 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $639 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $640 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $710.52 · official $710.52 (match) · 557 history records