Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:38:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56ed…a9f3 sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$302 (-46%) realized −$302 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate13%2W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$352
sports 36% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -14.0% -22.2% 13% 13% -72.5%
≤30d 15 -14.0% -22.2% 13% 13% -72.5%
≤90d 15 -14.0% -22.2% 13% 13% -72.5%
all 15 -14.0% -22.2% 13% 13% -72.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 13% -72.5%
10% -29.7% 13% -75.1%
15% -36.4% 13% -77.5%
20% -42.7% 13% -79.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$32 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$302
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses2 / 13
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 26
History coverage6d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Ghana? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Ghana? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $10 +$22 +216%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 23 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Egypt? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$90 +874%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $285 −$281 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $28 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Ghana? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Ghana? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 11h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $14 15h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Spread: Englan BUY 8¢ $15 15h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Spread: Englan BUY 23¢ $34 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a d BUY 5¢ $15 39h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 39h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 39h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - BUY 15¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 5¢ $10 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Exact Score: Belgi BUY 4¢ $21 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (- BUY 8¢ $31 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND BUY 2¢ $10 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY 25¢ $20 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 5d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $285 5d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? AND Will Switzerland vs. BUY 8¢ $15 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end BUY 9¢ $9 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.09 · official $28.09 (match) · 30 history records