Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:17:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

56
0x56eb…076a
sports · 165 markets active 11h ago
2.0score
+$186,752 +21%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$151,372 · open +$20,076
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$185,583
Realized+$151,372
Unrealized+$20,076
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses79 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$1,059
Open positions23
Markets (closed)142 / 165
History coverage84d
Avg bet$5,451
Trades / day38.5
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 23 History 142 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$811
7 days+$5,925
14 days+$7,766
30 days+$12,127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 75¢ 81¢ $54,128 $58,821 +$4,693 (+9%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 63¢ 77¢ $44,171 $53,646 +$9,476 (+21%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 83¢ 99¢ $17,196 $20,347 +$3,151 (+18%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 85¢ 96¢ $12,700 $14,430 +$1,730 (+14%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 83¢ 97¢ $7,390 $8,674 +$1,283 (+17%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 60¢ 56¢ $7,477 $6,999 −$478 (-6%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 85¢ 74¢ $4,356 $3,767 −$589 (-14%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $3,721 $3,503 −$218 (-6%)
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? No 57¢ 58¢ $3,316 $3,399 +$83 (+2%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes 75¢ 72¢ $2,250 $2,160 −$90 (-4%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $2,027 $2,025 −$2 (-0%)
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? No 71¢ 82¢ $1,710 $1,968 +$258 (+15%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 66¢ 84¢ $1,311 $1,690 +$379 (+29%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 54¢ 56¢ $1,400 $1,465 +$65 (+5%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 50¢ 54¢ $1,010 $1,070 +$60 (+6%)
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader? Yes 26¢ 44¢ $359 $621 +$261 (+73%)
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $288 $296 +$8 (+3%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 31¢ 28¢ $310 $285 −$25 (-8%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? No 42¢ 40¢ $210 $202 −$8 (-4%)
Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 National League Championship Series? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $79 $102 +$22 (+28%)
Insurrection Act invoked by June 30? No 77¢ 98¢ $51 $65 +$14 (+27%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 64¢ 68¢ $38 $41 +$3 (+8%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 67¢ 75¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+11%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Under 46¢ 0¢ $230 $0 −$230 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 62¢ 0¢ $124 $0 −$124 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $343 +$157 +46%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 12 $6,613 +$498 +8%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $167 −$165 -99%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $666 +$333 +50%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $318 −$315 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $149 +$151 +101%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $254 +$246 +97%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 11 $95 −$93 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $820 +$924 +113%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 10 $537 +$463 +86%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $290 −$278 -96%
Will Rhoda Magbitang win Top Chef Season 23? Jun 09 $1,727 +$687 +40%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $1,180 +$820 +70%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 09 $2,344 −$828 -35%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 08 $234 −$230 -98%
Will "The Balusters" win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards? Jun 08 $2,035 +$788 +39%
Will "Liberation" win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards? Jun 08 $6,459 +$2,406 +37%
Will "Nathan Lane" win Best Leading Actor in a Play at the 2026 Tony A Jun 08 $11 +$10 +92%
Will "John Lithgow" win Best Leading Actor in a Play at the 2026 Tony Jun 08 $105 +$79 +75%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $318 +$182 +57%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $482 +$217 +45%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $125 −$124 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 05 $410 −$410 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $875 +$1,125 +129%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $647 +$353 +55%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 01 $4,700 +$212 +4%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $21 +$5 +25%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros Jun 01 $945 +$555 +59%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the Eastern Conference? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Canadiens vs. Lightning May 28 $1,180 −$1,180 -100%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 28 $1,256 −$1,256 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 28 $627 +$373 +60%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 28 $667 +$333 +50%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el May 25 $1,325 −$25 -2%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele May 22 $2,269 −$430 -19%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $23 +$20 +88%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $11,142 +$8,806 +79%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 May 19 $5,244 −$1,324 -25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 14 $10,205 −$954 -9%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 13 $6,327 −$1,479 -23%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 09 $5,530 +$330 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 09 $2,281 −$674 -30%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $8,872 +$3,878 +44%
Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5 May 06 $9,050 +$5,950 +66%
Utah vs. Golden Knights May 01 $125 −$125 -100%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Wild vs. Stars May 01 $490 +$221 +45%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? May 01 $384 +$191 +50%
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by April 30? May 01 $1,252 +$426 +34%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 01 $16,129 +$918 +6%
Iran leadership change by April 30? May 01 $29,059 +$5,565 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 66% +$130,697
sports 16% +$23,340
politics 10% +$12,345
other 8% +$5,066
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $7,111 11h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $167 11h
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL No 59¢ $22 12h
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL No 59¢ $22 12h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $183 14h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 75¢ $2,250 14h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $239 15h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $420 15h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $12 15h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 15h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $226 15h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $945 16h
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? BUY Yes 67¢ $203 16h
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? BUY Yes 66¢ $464 16h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 69¢ $174 16h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY South Africa 46¢ $10 18h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY South Africa 46¢ $113 18h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY South Africa 46¢ $109 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $517 18h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY South Africa 34¢ $87 18h
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL No 59¢ $1,534 20h
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $11 22h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 85¢ $332 23h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 85¢ $82 23h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 85¢ $68 23h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 85¢ $68 23h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 85¢ $285 23h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 85¢ $217 23h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 85¢ $283 23h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 85¢ $280 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +14.7% +3.8% 68% 64% +11.7%
≤30d 39 +10.7% +0.1% 62% 56% +6.9%
≤90d 142 +12.9% +2.1% 56% 49% +7.5%
all 142 +12.9% +2.1% 56% 49% +7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover38.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.1% 49% +7.5%
10% -7.6% 42% -2.8%
15% ← realistic here -16.6% 37% -12.2%
20% -24.7% 26% -20.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185,583.13 · official $185,592.57 (match) · 3500 history records