Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:37:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
56 0x56e9…79c6 crypto 155 markets active 2h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10,485 (-11%) realized −$10,498 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate53%81W / 73L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$627per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$817est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,010now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,080
7 days+$1,080
14 days+$1,080
30 days+$1,738
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$4,128
crypto 34% −$7,278
other 9% −$501
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +51.9% +37.4% 80% 80% +36.9%
≤30d 12 +5.3% -4.7% 58% 58% +25.2%
≤90d 154 -10.5% -19.0% 53% 46% -21.5%
all 154 -10.5% -19.0% 53% 46% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 46% -21.5%
10% -26.7% 34% -29.0%
15% -33.8% 26% -35.9%
20% -40.3% 19% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$850) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$295 vs −$490 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$1,010
Realized−$10,498
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses81 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$817
Open positions1
Markets (closed)154 / 155
History coverage85d
Avg bet$627
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Andrey Rublev 64¢ 64¢ $997 $1,010 +$13 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 27 $307 +$109 +36%
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp Jun 27 $77 +$144 +186%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal Jun 27 $999 +$524 +52%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 27 $617 +$382 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 27 $104 −$79 -77%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $35 −$34 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $8 −$8 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $333 −$328 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $510 +$865 +170%
Roland Garros WTA: Peyton Stearns vs Belinda Bencic May 29 $800 +$115 +14%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $664 +$133 +20%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $86 −$85 -99%
Tunis: Skander Mansouri vs Federico Agustin Gomez May 12 $980 −$958 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karen Khachanov vs Dino Prizmic May 12 $1,008 −$993 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Casper Ruud May 12 $372 −$365 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers May 12 $1,995 +$370 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 12 $238 −$233 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $1,002 +$236 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 12 $96 −$91 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 12 $53 +$40 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 12 $213 +$61 +29%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniil Medvedev May 11 $1,057 +$1,109 +105%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Mariano Navone vs Hamad Medjedovic May 11 $982 +$71 +7%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elise Mertens vs Mirra Andreeva May 11 $1,104 +$159 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 11 $77 +$32 +42%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Iva Jovic May 11 $977 +$207 +21%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Mattia Bellucci vs Martin Landaluce May 11 $1,015 −$993 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 10 $393 −$379 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 10 $214 −$208 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 10 $8 +$4 +49%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic May 08 $6,763 −$1,195 -18%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Arnaldi May 08 $2,816 −$2,800 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Nuno Borges vs Rafael Jodar May 08 $997 −$979 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $1,106 +$220 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 08 $56 −$53 -96%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $507 −$500 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 06 $451 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 06 $395 +$118 +30%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Jessica Bouzas Manei May 06 $495 +$891 +180%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Katie Boulter vs Eva Lys May 06 $150 −$146 -97%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lilli Tagger vs Maria Sakkari May 06 $1,324 +$2,993 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 06 $49 −$47 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 06 $311 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 06 $193 +$166 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 06 $70 +$109 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 06 $708 −$700 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 02 $43 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 02 $413 −$413 -100%
Abidjan 2: Gauthier Onclin vs Eliakim Coulibaly May 02 $2,648 −$2,597 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1,506 +$151 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 64¢ $1,008 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $417 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $307 2h
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp SELL Inaki Montes 100¢ $222 2h
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Inaki Montes 34¢ $77 2h
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal SELL Sumit Nagal 100¢ $1,522 3h
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal BUY Sumit Nagal 65¢ $999 4h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 100¢ $999 4h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 61¢ $617 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $24 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $104 9h
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 5¢ $35 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Jakub Mensik 1¢ $8 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev BUY Andrey Rublev 53¢ $333 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul SELL Casper Ruud 99¢ $1,375 28d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul BUY Casper Ruud 36¢ $510 28d
Roland Garros WTA: Peyton Stearns vs Belinda Bencic SELL Belinda Bencic 100¢ $916 28d
Roland Garros WTA: Peyton Stearns vs Belinda Bencic BUY Belinda Bencic 87¢ $800 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic SELL Joao Fonseca 99¢ $797 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Joao Fonseca 82¢ $664 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar BUY Alex Michelsen 56¢ $86 29d
Tunis: Skander Mansouri vs Federico Agustin Gomez BUY Skander Mansouri 25¢ $980 46d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karen Khachanov vs Dino Prizmic BUY Dino Prizmic 48¢ $1,008 46d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Casper Ruud BUY Lorenzo Musetti 36¢ $372 46d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 99¢ $2,365 46d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 83¢ $995 46d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 83¢ $1,000 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $238 46d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers SELL Cavaliers 84¢ $1,238 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $96 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,010.04 · official $1,010.04 (match) · 341 history records