Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:00:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
56 0x56e9…d4f4 crypto 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%66W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$18
other 0% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 13 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 56 +0.0% -9.5% 98% 0% -9.5%
all 67 +0.0% -9.5% 99% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×26.31 per $1 lost it wins $26.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses66 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage118d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? May 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? May 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? May 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? May 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19? May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 16? May 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 15? May 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? May 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 10? May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? May 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 8? May 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? May 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 6? May 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 5? May 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? May 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 3? May 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 2? May 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1? May 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 28? Apr 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 23? Apr 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 22? Apr 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 18? Apr 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 15? Apr 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 12? Apr 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 4? Apr 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 2? Apr 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 28? Mar 30 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $5 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $8 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 10? BUY No 100¢ $5 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 41d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1? BUY No 100¢ $14 46d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.06 · official $7.06 (match) · 139 history records