Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:52:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56e8…cf67 crypto 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$139 (-6%) realized −$139 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%37W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day40.7pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$207
sports 27% −$213
crypto 16% −$59
world 5% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -8.3% -17.0% 44% 39% -16.0%
≤30d 84 -8.3% -17.0% 44% 39% -16.0%
≤90d 84 -8.3% -17.0% 44% 39% -16.0%
all 84 -8.3% -17.0% 44% 39% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 39% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 32% -24.0%
15% -32.2% 29% -31.4%
20% -38.8% 23% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$17 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$139
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses37 / 47
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)84 / 84
History coverage6d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day40.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 84 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $31 +$19 +61%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $194 +$73 +38%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $55 −$3 -5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$20 +194%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $37 +$9 +24%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$10 +101%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $15 +$11 +71%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $218 +$113 +52%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $123 −$98 -79%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $13 −$13 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $31 +$22 +69%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $14 −$2 -16%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -13%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $50 −$5 -9%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $112 +$89 +79%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $89 −$88 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 $0 -1%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $105 −$104 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $9 +$9 +95%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -10%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$4 -75%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $219 +$96 +44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $103 −$102 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $12 −$11 -90%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $14 +$13 +98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $4 +$19 +466%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $44 +$10 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +13%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $55 +$46 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 $0 -4%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $22 +$22 +100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $62 −$35 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $24 −$19 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 96¢ $1 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 96¢ $49 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $31 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 20¢ $4 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 26¢ $6 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $51 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $9 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 79¢ $118 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $57 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $41 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $41 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $119 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $52 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $35 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $5 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $9 14h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 14h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $16 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $30 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $10 19h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $46 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $10 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $10 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $10 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $1 21h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 268 history records