Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:03:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56e1…a9ec crypto 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,328 (-43%) realized −$2,328 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%48W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$19
14 days−$2,465
30 days−$2,465
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$2,317
other 18% −$145
crypto 11% +$127
weather 3% −$54
world 2% −$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -6.0% -15.0% 43% 43% -11.7%
≤30d 119 -16.2% -24.2% 40% 36% -50.6%
≤90d 119 -16.2% -24.2% 40% 36% -50.6%
all 119 -16.2% -24.2% 40% 36% -50.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 36% -50.6%
10% -31.5% 31% -55.3%
15% -38.1% 29% -59.6%
20% -44.2% 23% -63.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$44 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$2,328
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses48 / 71
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)119 / 119
History coverage14d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 119 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$4 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$19 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 28 $16 +$10 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$6 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 28 $10 −$1 -6%
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $10 +$6 +60%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 28 $20 +$9 +42%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 28 $33 −$6 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$9 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$10 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$8 +81%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$7 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$8 +262%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$7 +138%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$5 +51%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 27 $10 +$6 +63%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$8 +38%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $20 +$10 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$20 +369%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$12 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$4 +171%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $31 +$30 +98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $54 +$13 +25%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $67 −$38 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +39%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $35 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $8 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 3h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL No 37¢ $10 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 69¢ $10 14h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $10 14h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $10 14h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 37¢ $10 14h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $10 14h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 69¢ $10 14h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 45¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.49 · official $14.49 (match) · 307 history records