Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:19:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
56 0x56df…22c3 sports 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,567 (-22%) realized −$5,565 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate41%48W / 68L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$401est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$498
7 days−$427
14 days−$1,018
30 days−$4,210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$5,937
other 2% −$9
crypto 1% −$14
world 0% −$5
weather 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.9% -10.3% 40% 37% -20.4%
≤30d 102 -17.3% -25.1% 43% 33% -27.1%
≤90d 113 -19.3% -27.0% 41% 32% -30.6%
all 116 -18.6% -26.4% 41% 32% -30.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 32% -30.4%
10% -33.4% 24% -37.1%
15% -39.8% 12% -43.1%
20% -45.7% 9% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$125 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$5,565
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses48 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$401
Open positions1
Markets (closed)116 / 117
History coverage147d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner Jun 22 $31 −$22 -70%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 22 $43 −$43 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 22 $395 −$395 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $51 −$16 -31%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $51 −$11 -21%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $210 +$36 +17%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $199 −$34 -17%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $178 −$106 -60%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $14 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $306 −$24 -8%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $68 −$5 -7%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $105 +$27 +25%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $334 −$11 -3%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $99 −$8 -8%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $2 −$1 -34%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$16 +473%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $52 +$8 +15%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $23 +$17 +72%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $310 −$8 -3%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $7 +$5 +73%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $175 +$74 +42%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $12 −$1 -11%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $25 +$18 +73%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $58 +$29 +51%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $35 +$12 +33%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $367 +$35 +10%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $51 +$17 +32%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $107 −$22 -21%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $12 +$4 +32%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $181 +$31 +17%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $285 +$166 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C or below on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $264 −$264 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $279 −$264 -95%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $101 −$26 -26%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clu Jun 09 $58 −$58 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Misa Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $525 +$118 +23%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 09 $15 −$14 -96%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $86 −$78 -91%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $376 +$90 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $12 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 55m
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 58m
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 16¢ $35 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 10¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $246 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $210 3h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $165 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 21¢ $72 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 50¢ $76 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 50¢ $102 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $199 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $13 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 88¢ $262 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 88¢ $265 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 21¢ $21 4d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Infinite 46¢ $7 4d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Infinite 41¢ $16 4d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Infinite 42¢ $6 4d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 47¢ $33 4d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Infinite 45¢ $13 4d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 47¢ $14 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 41¢ $16 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 41¢ $25 4d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Infinite 86¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Infinite 83¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.50 · official $6.50 (match) · 501 history records