Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:13:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56da…c4f8 crypto 11 markets active 7d ago coverage 224d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1 (-5%) realized +$0 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 224d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% $0
crypto 45% −$1
economics 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 10 -6.9% -15.8% 70% 50% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 50% -12.0%
10% -23.9% 30% -20.4%
15% -31.2% 30% -28.1%
20% -38.0% 20% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage224d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Nov 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Nov 02 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Nov 01 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2AM ET Nov 01 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Nov 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Nov 01 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Nov 01 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Nov 01 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Nov 01 $1 −$1 -100%
US forces in Venezuela by November 30? Nov 01 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.25 · official $0.25 (match) · 18 history records