Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:43:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56d9…5d3d world 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 305d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%9W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$1
other 31% −$4
politics 10% $0
sports 9% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 14 -1.1% -10.5% 21% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 14 -1.1% -10.5% 21% 0% -10.0%
all 40 -0.4% -9.9% 22% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

305d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses9 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage305d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $44 +$3 +6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $139 −$3 -2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $27 −$1 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $47 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $24 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $43 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $44 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 -8%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $39 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $28 −$1 -3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $5 $0 +4%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 28 $7 $0 -2%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 28 $43 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times August 22–August 29? Aug 26 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31? Aug 25 $5 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Aug 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? Aug 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 22 $4 $0 +1%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 20 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 19 $13 $0 -3%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 19 $43 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $36 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $50 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $50 10h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $21 15h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $8 15h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $17 15h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $44 17h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $8 23h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $33 23h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $42 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $38 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $38 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $27 39h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 88¢ $27 41h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $47 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $47 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $16 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $24 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $43 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $5 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $17 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $9 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.08 · official $36.08 (match) · 124 history records