trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -0.8% | -10.3% | 0% | 0% | -10.9% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -0.8% | -10.2% | 12% | 0% | -10.4% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -0.8% | -10.2% | 12% | 0% | -10.4% |
| all | 24 | -5.2% | -14.3% | 29% | 0% | -10.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.3% | 0% | -10.8% |
| 10% | -22.5% | 0% | -19.3% |
| 15% | -29.9% | 0% | -27.1% |
| 20% | -36.8% | 0% | -34.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | No | 52¢ | 52¢ | $38 | $38 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 23 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 23 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | Jun 23 | $35 | −$1 | -2% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 03 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 02 | $55 | −$1 | -1% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | May 26 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 26 | $36 | $0 | -1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | May 25 | $10 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 17 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? | Jun 24 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? | May 11 | $11 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? | May 08 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 08 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? | May 07 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Sali Berisha be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 | May 07 | $11 | $0 | +2% |
| Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 | May 06 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| U.S. recession before May 2025? | May 05 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| TikTok sale announced before April? | Mar 29 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? | Mar 27 | $11 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? | Mar 25 | $1 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? | Mar 24 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 22 | $14 | −$2 | -16% |
| Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 7-14? | Mar 15 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? | Mar 10 | $1 | $0 | +0% |