Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:51:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
56 0x56d7…774f other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$49 (+19%) realized +$42 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR78%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$39
14 days+$39
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$36
crypto 6% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +78%
net ROI/market (all)+9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +20.9% +9.4% 78% 78% +11.3%
≤30d 9 +20.9% +9.4% 78% 78% +11.3%
≤90d 9 +20.9% +9.4% 78% 78% +11.3%
all 9 +20.9% +9.4% 78% 78% +11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.4% 78% +11.3%
10% -1.1% 78% +0.6%
15% -10.7% 78% -9.1%
20% -19.4% 67% -18.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$17 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage23d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+39%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$8 +56%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$8 +51%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$11 +72%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $16 +$8 +51%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $16 −$15 -95%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +69%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $54 +$28 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 42h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $15 47h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $16 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $16 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $54 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.37 · official $97.37 (match) · 41 history records