Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:04:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
56 0x56d7…7106 crypto 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$398 (+18%) realized +$419 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate34%10W / 19L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 138d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$48
sports 6% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -3.6% -12.7% 38% 27% -4.6%
≤30d 26 -3.6% -12.7% 38% 27% -4.6%
≤90d 26 -3.6% -12.7% 38% 27% -4.6%
all 29 -13.5% -21.8% 34% 24% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 24% -7.4%
10% -29.3% 21% -16.3%
15% -36.1% 17% -24.4%
20% -42.4% 17% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$31 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$419
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses10 / 19
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage138d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Sweden to score first vs. Netherlands? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $116 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $241 −$14 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $33 −$31 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 20 $105 −$86 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $105 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $210 +$142 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $34 −$8 -24%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $138 +$9 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $115 +$27 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $106 +$99 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $208 +$44 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $104 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $33 +$206 +624%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$86 +277%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $16 +$15 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Feb 02 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Feb 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Feb 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $6 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $33 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $32 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $33 55m
Sweden to score first vs. Netherlands? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $19 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $113 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $126 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $227 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $125 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $132 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.46 · official $99.46 (match) · 81 history records