Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
56 0x56d5…2c23 sports 375 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$314 (+8%) realized +$313 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR72%break-even
Win rate72%267W / 105L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$118
14 days+$155
30 days+$295
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$247
other 3% +$31
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -14.8% -23.0% 65% 64% -0.8%
≤30d 302 +2.5% -7.3% 75% 74% -1.5%
≤90d 372 +1.8% -7.9% 72% 72% -2.9%
all 372 +1.8% -7.9% 72% 72% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 72% -2.9%
10% -16.7% 67% -12.2%
15% -24.8% 38% -20.7%
20% -32.1% 21% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$313
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses267 / 105
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions3
Markets (closed)372 / 375
History coverage47d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 372 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 79¢ 100¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 17 $15 +$4 +29%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $6 +$2 +32%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 +$15 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$17 +55%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $15 +$4 +26%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $15 +$4 +26%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $6 +$2 +24%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $15 +$4 +24%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $6 +$2 +40%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $30 +$19 +62%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $100 +$14 +14%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $15 +$6 +38%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $27 +$23 +85%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $6 +$2 +42%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $50 +$9 +17%
Counter-Strike: Atputies vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: STATE vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $6 +$2 +24%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 13 $6 +$2 +27%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 +$1 +17%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - ROG Jou Jun 13 $4 +$1 +18%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 +$2 +32%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs aimclub (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs AM Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gr Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clu Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stag Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Group Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group St Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs Clutchain (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Pl Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 79¢ $6 2h
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY Dplus 77¢ $15 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 75¢ $6 6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $36 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 14h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 79¢ $15 22h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $10 24h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 79¢ $15 45h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Galions 80¢ $6 46h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 80¢ $15 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 71¢ $6 2d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY FUT Esports 61¢ $30 2d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 87¢ $100 2d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 72¢ $15 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 54¢ $27 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 70¢ $6 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 85¢ $50 3d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 79¢ $15 3d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo BUY UCAM Esports Club 78¢ $6 3d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Eintracht Spandau 80¢ $6 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 77¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: STATE vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs BUY STATE 81¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 85¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 75¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - ROG Jou BUY Metizport 84¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: STATE vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs BUY STATE 83¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Atputies vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY Atputies 83¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs aimclub (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY fnatic 83¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.50 · official $67.50 (match) · 779 history records