Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:40:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56d4…a3a9 politics 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$552 (+0%) realized +$552 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate16%20W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$918per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$905now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$12
14 days−$25
30 days+$1,061
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$66
other 36% −$14
sports 9% +$638
culture 2% −$4
world 2% −$16
economics 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 25 +5.2% -4.8% 12% 4% -6.9%
≤90d 93 -11.1% -19.6% 8% 3% -9.5%
all 126 -0.8% -10.3% 16% 11% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 11% -9.1%
10% -18.9% 11% -17.8%
15% -26.7% 10% -25.7%
20% -33.9% 10% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,387) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$12 · ×7.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$905
Realized+$552
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses20 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage123d
Avg bet$918
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $905 $905 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $986 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2,070 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,654 −$3 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $1,676 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,392 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,649 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,646 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,650 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,417 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $2,180 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $3,153 −$4 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,601 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? Jun 04 $88 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 04 $666 +$1 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $1,829 −$3 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $1,387 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 28 $1,139 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,198 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,624 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $1,525 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $2,093 −$3 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,330 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $1,333 −$2 -0%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 23 $836 +$1,108 +133%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $717 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $677 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $818 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $924 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,462 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1,027 −$1 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $984 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,039 −$1 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $846 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $5,213 −$5 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,582 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,542 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,525 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $756 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $3,142 −$3 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $1,883 −$2 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $646 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 09 $657 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $742 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $750 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $1,733 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $232 1h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $232 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $905 31h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,640 3d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,642 4d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,651 5d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,654 5d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,673 5d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,676 5d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,391 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,047 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,647 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $345 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,649 6d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,643 11d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,646 11d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,648 12d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,650 12d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,415 13d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,417 13d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,598 13d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,600 13d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,537 13d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,539 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,599 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,601 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,346 18d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,348 18d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,385 18d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,387 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $904.74 · official $904.74 (match) · 397 history records