Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:13:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
56 0x56d3…bc9f crypto 940 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$54 (+2%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate81%765W / 174L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day82.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$28
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 495 +2.6% -7.2% 83% 81% -7.7%
≤30d 939 +1.0% -8.7% 81% 80% -9.4%
≤90d 939 +1.0% -8.7% 81% 80% -9.4%
all 939 +1.0% -8.7% 81% 80% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 80% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 35% -18.1%
15% -25.4% 9% -26.0%
20% -32.7% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses765 / 174
Open positions1
Markets (closed)939 / 940
History coverage12d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day82.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 939 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 84¢ 72¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.98 · official $2.98 (match) · 1723 history records