Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:01:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56d2…70a3 crypto 355 markets active 2d ago coverage 32d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$799 (-24%) realized −$799 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate30%107W / 248L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day45.5pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$23
30 days+$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$303
sports 8% +$395
world 3% −$1
other 3% −$41
politics 1% +$5
weather 1% +$4
economics 1% +$31
tech 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -18.0% -25.8% 10% 10% -12.9%
≤30d 224 -6.5% -15.4% 26% 20% -3.1%
≤90d 355 -7.4% -16.2% 30% 23% -6.9%
all 355 -7.4% -16.2% 30% 23% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 23% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 19% -15.8%
15% -31.5% 15% -23.9%
20% -38.3% 13% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$3 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$799
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses107 / 248
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)355 / 355
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day45.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 355 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 26 $2 $0 -21%
Will Marco Silva be the next manager of Benfica? Jun 26 $7 −$2 -28%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $40 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 26 $25 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 25 $17 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 25 $25 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 24 $37 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 22 $27 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $30 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $13 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $33 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $39 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $36 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $32 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $32 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 10 $25 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 10 $43 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 09 $25 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 09 $44 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 08 $47 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 08 $94 −$8 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $2 $0 -17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $25 −$5 -21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $5 −$3 -61%
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? Jun 07 $5 −$2 -47%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 07 $5 −$1 -11%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jun 07 $10 +$6 +58%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $77 +$5 +7%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $10 −$2 -25%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 07 $6 +$3 +59%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 07 $20 −$4 -18%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $12 +$2 +18%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 07 $29 −$1 -5%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $27 +$388 +1422%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Joey Bosa play for Miami Dolphins in 2026-27? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? SELL No 20¢ $0 2d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 10¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records