Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:19:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56d2…be1e sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$28 (-17%) realized −$32 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$31
14 days−$31
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$20
sports 30% −$6
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-33.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -27.5% -34.4% 42% 42% -32.0%
≤30d 13 -26.1% -33.1% 38% 38% -31.9%
≤90d 13 -26.1% -33.1% 38% 38% -31.9%
all 13 -26.1% -33.1% 38% 38% -31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.1% 38% -31.9%
10% -39.5% 38% -38.4%
15% -45.4% 23% -44.3%
20% -50.7% 15% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage9d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England to score first vs. Croatia? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 +$23 +228%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$8 +27%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Haiti to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +54%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +23%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 09 $1 $0 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.16 · official $39.16 (match) · 25 history records