Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56d1…83ea other 348 markets active 6h ago coverage 631d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,449 (-22%) realized −$9,446 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate40%138W / 208L
Whale WR15%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$22
14 days−$60
30 days−$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$3,652
politics 23% −$366
world 15% −$387
sports 13% −$4,928
tech 3% +$1
culture 3% −$30
finance 2% −$52
economics 2% −$66
crypto 1% +$36
weather 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +6.3% -3.8% 50% 10% -11.9%
≤30d 38 -13.0% -21.3% 53% 13% -14.4%
≤90d 137 -30.3% -37.0% 33% 7% -43.3%
all 346 -5.9% -14.8% 40% 14% -29.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 14% -29.0%
10% -23.0% 10% -35.8%
15% -30.4% 8% -42.0%
20% -37.2% 6% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 15% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$60 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

631d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$9,446
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses138 / 208
Whale WR (big bets)15%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)346 / 348
History coverage631d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 346 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-85%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 20 $247 −$13 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $3 +$5 +186%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $63 −$7 -11%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $105 +$6 +5%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $28 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 15 $156 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $55 +$3 +5%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $9 −$2 -20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $160 +$4 +3%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $345 +$2 +0%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 10 $50 +$1 +3%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 09 $161 −$7 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Jun 09 $0 $0 +24%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $196 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Jun 05 $16 +$4 +26%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 05 $189 +$1 +1%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 05 $54 +$4 +7%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 05 $13 +$7 +56%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 04 $122 +$2 +2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $52 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in June? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 04 $36 +$12 +33%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 02 $36 $0 -1%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m? May 29 $36 $0 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 in May? May 29 $145 −$3 -2%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May? May 28 $65 −$21 -33%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? May 27 $228 +$2 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 27 $95 −$1 -1%
Will Five Below Q1 comparable sales growth be between 17.5% and 20%? May 27 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May? May 27 $14 −$14 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? May 26 $11 $0 +4%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May? May 26 $120 −$15 -12%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 26 $32 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 26 $6 −$6 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 17 $237 +$6 +2%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ma May 10 $61 −$5 -9%
UFC: Strickland and Chimaev to Touch Gloves? May 10 $5 +$35 +641%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 09 $129 −$2 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $76 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $40 −$3 -6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 09 $15 $0 -1%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el May 04 $49 +$1 +2%
ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31? Apr 28 $135 −$1 -1%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1m? Apr 28 $0 $0 -100%
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026? Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 78¢ $234 5h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $56 43h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 81¢ $81 43h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 82¢ $82 43h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 83¢ $42 43h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 83¢ $42 43h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $26 5d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $28 5d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $85 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $99 5d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $3 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $99 5d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $0 5d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $5 5d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $8 5d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $63 5d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $9 5d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $0 5d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $10 5d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $10 5d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $41 5d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $41 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL Yes 58¢ $3 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL Yes 58¢ $20 5d
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $164 5d
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL No 44¢ $32 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.78 · official $0.78 (match) · 2122 history records