Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:25:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
56 0x56cf…1140 other 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$657 (+50%) realized +$658 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +47% what you keep after slip
Net edge+47%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$299now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days+$305
14 days+$505
30 days+$606
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$213
sports 19% +$392
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+46.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +49.4% +35.2% 50% 50% +35.8%
≤30d 10 +62.4% +46.9% 60% 60% +44.6%
≤90d 10 +62.4% +46.9% 60% 60% +44.6%
all 10 +62.4% +46.9% 60% 60% +44.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +46.9% 60% +44.6%
10% +32.8% 60% +30.7%
15% +20.0% 50% +18.1%
20% +8.2% 50% +6.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +62% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$159 vs −$87 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.74 per $1 lost it wins $2.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$299
Realized+$658
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage17d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $300 $299 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $102 −$92 -90%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Belgium? Jun 27 $102 +$108 +106%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $103 −$57 -56%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 +$23 +23%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $102 +$424 +414%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 +$231 +226%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $51 +$68 +134%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $152 +$102 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $307 0m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 30m
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Belgium? SELL No 95¢ $209 36m
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Belgium? BUY No 45¢ $102 38m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 7¢ $45 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 15¢ $103 2h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 5d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 9d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 42¢ $51 12d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 15d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 67¢ $102 15d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 65¢ $101 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $299.31 · official $299.31 (match) · 21 history records