Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:48:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
56 0x56ce…7c5a other 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$503 (-2%) realized −$501 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate34%23W / 45L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$436per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$140est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$722
7 days+$282
14 days+$482
30 days+$212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$1,184
finance 23% −$1,060
sports 17% +$684
world 10% −$213
politics 10% +$533
crypto 3% +$409
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -20.2% -27.8% 34% 31% -7.6%
≤30d 34 -18.8% -26.5% 32% 29% -8.3%
≤90d 47 -17.7% -25.5% 32% 26% -9.5%
all 68 -14.0% -22.2% 34% 28% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 28% -12.0%
10% -29.6% 21% -20.4%
15% -36.4% 16% -28.1%
20% -42.6% 12% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$629) neutral
Persistence
early -9% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$208 vs −$127 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$501
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses23 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$140
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage165d
Avg bet$436
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $93 $91 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04? Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 4? Jun 19 $116 −$70 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? Jun 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Jun 19 $224 −$224 -100%
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 19 $200 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 19 $247 −$247 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $628 −$535 -85%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $722 −$92 -13%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $637 +$16 +2%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $477 +$229 +48%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $223 −$144 -64%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $345 −$122 -35%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $300 +$747 +249%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $321 +$169 +53%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $629 +$702 +112%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $306 −$178 -58%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,135 −$227 -20%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,307 +$530 +41%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $543 −$61 -11%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $27 +$26 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $332 −$305 -92%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,248 −$920 -74%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $791 +$459 +58%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,163 +$633 +54%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $988 +$176 +18%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,076 +$272 +25%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $949 −$39 -4%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $206 −$19 -9%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $206 −$15 -7%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $484 −$270 -56%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 04 $247 −$22 -9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 04 $302 −$54 -18%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $135 −$125 -92%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $130 −$30 -23%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 12 $949 +$259 +27%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $1,131 +$300 +27%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 12 $224 +$1 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 12 $80 −$13 -16%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 12 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 12 $222 +$16 +7%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $443 −$222 -50%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 07 $777 −$281 -36%
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorn Apr 07 $349 −$29 -8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 14 $4,450 −$643 -14%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10? Mar 11 $100 +$67 +67%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $100 −$3 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $95 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $48 10h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $44 10h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $628 11h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 58¢ $629 11h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $722 11h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $654 12h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $637 13h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $706 13h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $477 21h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $79 33h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $223 33h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 51¢ $224 34h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $345 34h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,046 35h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $300 36h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $491 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $321 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,331 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $629 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 14¢ $128 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $306 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $314 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $518 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $1,011 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $624 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $826 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $480 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 72¢ $482 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.84 · official $90.84 (match) · 261 history records