Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56ca…e2ce world 98 markets active 10h ago coverage 309d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate34%33W / 63L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$21
14 days+$8
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$19
other 20% −$3
politics 17% $0
sports 10% −$3
economics 4% +$3
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +6.2% -3.9% 75% 12% -8.4%
≤30d 26 +1.9% -7.8% 50% 4% -9.2%
≤90d 71 -1.1% -10.6% 34% 3% -9.4%
all 96 -0.9% -10.3% 34% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 2% -9.4%
10% -18.9% 1% -18.1%
15% -26.7% 1% -26.0%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

309d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses33 / 63
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)96 / 98
History coverage309d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 37¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+170%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $493 +$2 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $14 $0 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $194 −$1 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $4 +$2 +42%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $552 +$13 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $175 +$3 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $86 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $218 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $53 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $82 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $288 −$3 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $324 −$9 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $479 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 31 $88 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $365 −$1 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $306 +$1 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 30 $148 +$3 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $148 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $149 −$2 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $309 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $331 +$8 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $155 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $162 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 20 $101 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $160 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $146 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $146 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $77 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $3 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $43 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $294 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $6 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $146 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $12 $0 -3%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $54 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $211 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $150 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $307 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $308 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 21 $4 −$2 -46%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $135 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $162 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $142 +$1 +1%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $294 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $147 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $147 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $146 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $132 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $24 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $156 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $177 33h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $177 33h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $13 39h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $149 39h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $160 42h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $14 44h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $14 47h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $19 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $6 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $4 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $86 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $16 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $73 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $174 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $44 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $38 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $12 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $70 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $135 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $147 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $180 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $162 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $106 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $33 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.54 · official $0.00 (match) · 387 history records