Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:44:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

56 0x56c9…0d9e sports 66 markets active 3h ago coverage 10d ⚠

BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 9d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ bot/MM pace (364 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$925,101 (-89%) realized −$896,774 · open −$28,327

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -77% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -84% what you keep after slip

Net edge-84%after slip

Net WR7%break-even

Win rate11%39W / 301L

Whale WR18%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$15,671per market

Trades / day363.8pace

Fees−$7,917est.

Kalshi-fit68%portable

Net worth$80,684now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (364 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +7%

net ROI/market (all)-79.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	301	-84.5%	-86.0%	5%	4%	-97.7%
≤30d	340	-77.2%	-79.3%	11%	7%	-81.3%
≤90d	340	-77.2%	-79.3%	11%	7%	-81.3%
all	340	-77.2%	-79.3%	11%	7%	-81.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover363.8 tr/day

realistic slip~18%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-79.3%	7%	-81.3%
10%	-81.3%	4%	-83.1%
15% ← realistic here	-83.1%	3%	-84.7%
20%	-84.8%	2%	-86.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 36% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -82% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

36% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -77% · $-wt -82% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 18% (≥$16,671) big bets weaker

Persistence

early -68% → late -87% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

34.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$3,747 vs −$13,354 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.04 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$80,684

Realized−$896,774

Unrealized−$28,327

Win rate (resolved)11%

Wins / losses39 / 301

Whale WR (big bets)18%

Est. fees paid−$7,917

Open positions6

Markets (closed)340 / 66

History coverage10d ⚠

Avg bet$15,671

Trades / day363.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 340 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	11¢	$60,279	$38,919	−$21,361 (-35%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$31,627	$29,816	−$1,811 (-6%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$5,788	$5,279	−$509 (-9%)
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	12¢	6¢	$7,853	$4,240	−$3,613 (-46%)
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?	No	92¢	71¢	$2,231	$1,727	−$503 (-23%)
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	83¢	48¢	$1,234	$704	−$530 (-43%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 294 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11AM ET	Jun 28	$5,815	−$5,797	-100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3)	Jun 28	$23,991	−$23,991	-100%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-04-10?	Jun 28	$7,613	−$7,613	-100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner	Jun 28	$30	−$6,535	-21866%
Sinner vs. Zverev: Match O/U 21.5	Jun 28	$11,697	−$11,697	-100%
LoL: Shifters vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season	Jun 28	$29,052	−$29,052	-100%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova	Jun 28	$3	−$5,233	-176733%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora - Game 4 Winner	Jun 28	$6,186	−$11,104	-180%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?	Jun 28	$19,531	−$19,531	-100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner	Jun 28	$3,845	−$3,845	-100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Madison Keys vs Peyton Stearns	Jun 28	$9,035	−$9,846	-109%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner	Jun 28	$15,770	−$15,770	-100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner	Jun 28	$11,677	−$11,677	-100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Heroic (BO1)	Jun 28	$1,052	−$1,052	-100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner	Jun 28	$12,674	−$12,674	-100%
Chiefs vs. Titans	Jun 28	$9,922	−$9,922	-100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5	Jun 28	$13,932	−$13,932	-100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner	Jun 28	$20,374	−$20,374	-100%
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Hailey Baptiste	Jun 28	$12,182	−$12,182	-100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner	Jun 28	$15,315	−$15,315	-100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner	Jun 28	$1,253	−$2,831	-226%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner	Jun 28	$34,175	−$34,175	-100%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Fnatic (+1.5)	Jun 28	$12,064	−$12,064	-100%
US government shutdown Saturday?	Jun 28	$15,280	−$15,280	-100%
Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5)	Jun 28	$16,333	−$16,333	-100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04?	Jun 28	$61,709	−$61,464	-100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner	Jun 28	$1	−$15,846	-2118468%
Nuggets vs. Spurs	Jun 28	$10,539	−$7,844	-74%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner	Jun 28	$4,334	−$4,334	-100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-04-04?	Jun 28	$4,786	−$4,786	-100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13?	Jun 28	$11,355	−$11,355	-100%
Spurs vs. Nuggets	Jun 28	$26,525	−$26,540	-100%
LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner	Jun 28	$12,069	−$12,069	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7PM ET	Jun 28	$7,320	−$7,320	-100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-02-22?	Jun 28	$1,221	−$1,221	-100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner	Jun 28	$3,608	−$3,608	-100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 - Game 2 Winner	Jun 28	$12,375	−$12,375	-100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 4?	Jun 28	$2,900	−$2,900	-100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla	Jun 28	$4,100	−$7,895	-193%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner	Jun 28	$7,027	−$7,001	-100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner	Jun 28	$6,086	−$6,086	-100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Oh My God - Game 1 Winner	Jun 28	$857	−$857	-100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-04-09?	Jun 28	$1,227	−$1,227	-100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner	Jun 28	$7,197	−$7,197	-100%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs	Jun 28	$33,774	−$33,774	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1PM ET	Jun 28	$10,465	−$10,465	-100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner	Jun 28	$10,555	−$10,555	-100%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5)	Jun 28	$8,292	−$8,292	-100%
Chiefs vs. Cowboys	Jun 28	$40,164	−$40,164	-100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	Jun 28	$7,687	−$7,687	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$227	2h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$1,773	2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$4,076	13h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	59¢	$3,046	16h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$937	16h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$3,145	22h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	58¢	$969	31h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	58¢	$5,110	31h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL No	67¢	$168	31h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL No	60¢	$15	31h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL No	60¢	$82	31h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL No	60¢	$3	31h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL No	60¢	$15	32h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL No	60¢	$60	32h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL No	60¢	$3	32h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL No	60¢	$12	32h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL No	60¢	$14	32h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL No	60¢	$10	32h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL No	60¢	$3	32h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL No	60¢	$13	32h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL No	60¢	$12	32h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL No	60¢	$5	32h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL No	60¢	$15	32h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL No	59¢	$215	32h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL No	59¢	$11	32h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL No	59¢	$17	32h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL No	59¢	$38	32h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL No	59¢	$56	32h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL No	59¢	$257	32h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL No	59¢	$1	32h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80,684.22 · official $80,684.22 (match) · 3500 history records