Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:22:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56c8…7cc8 sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,306 (-51%) realized −$8,295 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -71% what you keep after slip
Net edge-71%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%2W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,167per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Fees−$140est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$3,666now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$6,471
other 40% −$1,994
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-67.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -63.5% -67.0% 18% 18% -70.4%
≤30d 11 -63.5% -67.0% 18% 18% -70.4%
≤90d 11 -63.5% -67.0% 18% 18% -70.4%
all 11 -63.5% -67.0% 18% 18% -70.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -67.0% 18% -70.4%
10% ← realistic here -70.1% 18% -73.2%
15% -73.0% 18% -75.8%
20% -75.7% 18% -78.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -67% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -63% · $-wt -67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,027 vs −$1,167 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$3,666
Realized−$8,295
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses2 / 9
Est. fees paid−$140
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1,167
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 54¢ $1,315 $1,327 +$12 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 53¢ 52¢ $1,298 $1,286 −$12 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 48¢ 48¢ $1,064 $1,053 −$11 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2,633 −$2,596 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $884 −$884 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,633 −$1,633 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $325 −$325 -100%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $688 −$688 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $769 −$769 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,025 −$1,025 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1,252 −$1,252 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1,336 −$1,336 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $966 +$1,119 +116%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,091 +$935 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $18 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $1,298 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $1,334 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $1,081 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1,429 6h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 9h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $41 9h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $839 9h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1,252 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $1 14h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $1 14h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1,089 15h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 59¢ $1,633 26h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1,203 26h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $1,336 26h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 46¢ $966 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $325 31h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1,025 36h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 53¢ $32 37h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 53¢ $131 37h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 40¢ $688 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $605 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,666.20 · official $3,666.20 (match) · 32 history records