Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:20:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56c8…feb7 world 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-2%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%9W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% −$3
finance 8% $0
other 6% $0
sports 3% −$5
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 +0.2% -9.3% 23% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 13 +0.2% -9.3% 23% 0% -10.2%
all 21 -1.1% -10.5% 43% 0% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -11.1%
10% -19.1% 0% -19.6%
15% -26.9% 0% -27.4%
20% -34.1% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses9 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage474d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $34 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $47 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $65 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $56 −$3 -5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $15 +$1 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $35 $0 -1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Jun 26 $6 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? May 12 $14 −$5 -34%
Will the Giants draft Cameron Ward? Apr 27 $2 $0 +1%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government? Mar 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $8 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $35 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $35 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $31 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $31 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $15 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $15 45h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $32 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 72¢ $33 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $33 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $0 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $16 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $16 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $32 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $29 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $4 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $36 12d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $26 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $12 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $12 12d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 13d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 13d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 13d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $6 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $22 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 64 history records