Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:44:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56c7…892c sports 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$180 (-74%) realized −$180 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$105
world 38% −$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-46.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -40.8% -46.4% 29% 29% -78.4%
≤30d 7 -40.8% -46.4% 29% 29% -78.4%
≤90d 7 -40.8% -46.4% 29% 29% -78.4%
all 7 -40.8% -46.4% 29% 29% -78.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.4% 29% -78.4%
10% -51.6% 29% -80.5%
15% -56.3% 14% -82.3%
20% -60.5% 0% -84.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -76% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -76% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$38 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$180
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 54¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 +$2 +43%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3 −$2 -58%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 +$6 +29%
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$2 -16%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $92 −$77 -84%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $7 0m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $3 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 13¢ $1 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $5 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 29¢ $3 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 15¢ $1 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $10 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $20 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 8¢ $14 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $41 24h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 15¢ $10 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 26h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $101 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.15 · official $3.15 (match) · 16 history records